Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

Just eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.